Signal Syndicate Daily Analysis — Sep 22, 2026

2 signals graded, 1-1-0 record, +30.00% ROI, +0.60u — computed from the append-only settled ledger.

> 1-1-0 · +0.60u · 30.0% ROI — 2 LIVE signals graded on 2026-09-21. Honest ledger, nothing hidden.

2 signals settled from yesterday's card.

What Happened Yesterday

Monday's three-game slate split the LIVE run-line³ model. Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles cleared for 1.60 units after the underdog covered the plus-1.5 line. Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigers went the other way — the Nationals took the loss at minus-1.00 unit. Net result: plus-0.60 units on a two-signal sample. The model misfired on Detroit and we took the loss.

Closing line value¹ on those two run-line signals came in: median plus-3.03 percent, mean plus-3.03 percent. Over the past seven days the run-line lane has held median CLV of plus-3.33 percent, with the mean at plus-14.93 percent — the spread signals outlier movement but the median remains the process metric we monitor. All-time the run-line model carries median CLV of plus-0.88 percent across 118 graded signals. Entry price discipline is holding.

Shadow research exists to test frameworks before they touch real money. Yesterday the Hits Props UNDER lane went 2-0 and returned 0.76 units. Median CLV of minus-24.58 percent — that gap between results and entry price is structural noise in a thin sample, not a signal to chase. The shadow portfolio now sits at 830-431-4, minus-4.74 units lifetime. It is intended to validate frameworks in the noise before they graduate to the LIVE book.

Cumulative picture: the LIVE portfolio stands at 118-74-0, plus-31.59 units, 16.45 percent ROI across 192 signals. Total activity across all lanes — LIVE and shadow combined — is 948-505-4, plus-26.84 units, 1.84 percent ROI across 1,457 signals. Seven days ago that total sat at 1,211 signals and plus-19.71 units. The desk is on a four-day streak by daily net.

How the Projection Engine Did

Monday's projection engine⁸ covered 275 player projections across the three-game slate — 55 unique players in the system. The largest average deltas by category landed on total bases at minus-0.27 and hits at minus-0.16. If we project a hitter for 1.2 hits and he finishes with 1, that projection missed by 0.2. The negative delta² means the engine ran slightly hot on power categories — projecting more production than materialized.

In practice, this means: parlay builders using these projections for correlation plays should account for baseline assumptions when stacking same-game totals. DFS constructors building multi-position lineups can use the hit-rate data but should approach the top-end total-base ceiling in GPP formats with caution. The projection engine is a research tool — it sets the framework.

Today's Card

Tuesday's slate expands to 15 games. The run-line model generated zero signals — the price gate held and no matchup cleared the Kelly threshold. The single named candidate for today: Washington Nationals plus-1.5 at Detroit Tigers, best price MyBookie.ag at minus-161. Additional run-line interest — and all shadow-lane research — lives on the Signal Board. The projection engine is tracking 1,355 player projections across the full 15-game card for parlay builders, DFS players, and those building their own frameworks.

What This Means

Closing line value is a process metric. The run-line model is capturing plus-CLV at the median over every meaningful window — yesterday, seven days, all-time. That discipline is the focus. Results in any two-signal sample are noise.

Dig Deeper

• View the Signal Board
• Explore today's projections
• Full performance ledger

Every figure computed from the append-only settled ledger. Educational research only — not betting advice.
Data: Signal Platform · Edited by: Signal Desk

Definitions

• ¹ CLV (Closing Line Value) — whether the price we got beat the closing price. A measure of process quality, not profit or loss.
• ² Delta — the gap between our projection and the market's line for a player prop; the side where we'd have value.
• ³ Run Line — baseball's spread bet, typically ±1.5 runs.
• ⁴ Hits Props OVER/UNDER — a bet on whether a player records more or fewer hits than the posted line.
• ⁵ F5 Innings — first-five-innings result, isolating the starting pitchers.
• ⁶ ROI / units (u) — return per unit staked; +1.00u = one unit of profit.
• ⁷ LIVE / SHADOW / total portfolio — LIVE is the official real-money book; SHADOW is research tracked publicly but excluded from the official record; total = live + shadow combined.
• ⁸ Mean absolute error (MAE) — the average size of our miss, ignoring direction; lower is better.

All figures are estimates. Past analysis is not a guarantee of future results. Not betting advice.