Signal Syndicate Performance Ledger

Live settlement tracking · updated daily after settlement (≈09:30 UTC)

🟢 Hero = LIVE models only (1707 graded). Combined all-models ledger incl. shadow: 1098-601-8 · +7.13u — shadow tracked in its own cards below.

1707Total Signals
1098-601-8 (64.6%)W-L-P
+0.42%ROI
+7.13uUnits

Cumulative units equity curve (live models)

Active Models

Shadow & Research Lanes

Run Lines
PAUSED
125-76-1
W-L-P
62.2%
Win Rate
+17.87%
ROI
+36.09u
Units
n=202
Sample
Backtest: +1.77% ROI (n=998, 2024-2026)

Shadow / research lane — live track record shown for transparency; not promoted to the public board yet.

Hits Props OVER
🟡 SHADOW
228-163-0
W-L-P
58.3%
Win Rate
-9.61%
ROI
-37.59u
Units
n=391
Sample
Backtest: +13.32% ROI (n=2235, 2024-2026)

Shadow / research lane — live track record shown for transparency; not promoted to the public board yet.

Hits Props UNDER
🟡 SHADOW
663-291-0
W-L-P
69.5%
Win Rate
+0.54%
ROI
+5.13u
Units
n=954
Sample
Backtest: +66.44% ROI (n=880, 2024-2026)

Shadow / research lane — live track record shown for transparency; not promoted to the public board yet.

MLB Totals UNDER
RETIRED
12-3-2
W-L-P
80.0%
Win Rate
+46.52%
ROI
+7.91u
Units
n=17
Sample
Backtest: +4.52% ROI (n=981, 2024-2026)

Shadow / research lane — live track record shown for transparency; not promoted to the public board yet.

F5 Innings
🟡 SHADOW
42-39-0
W-L-P
51.9%
Win Rate
-1.01%
ROI
-0.82u
Units
n=81
Sample
Backtest: +13.21% ROI (n=86, 2026)

Shadow / research lane — live track record shown for transparency; not promoted to the public board yet.

NFL Spreads
🟡 SHADOW
14-11-1
W-L-P
56.0%
Win Rate
+6.52%
ROI
+1.69u
Units
n=26
Sample

Shadow / research lane — live track record shown for transparency; not promoted to the public board yet.

NFL Totals
🟡 SHADOW
14-18-4
W-L-P
43.8%
Win Rate
-14.65%
ROI
-5.27u
Units
n=36
Sample

Shadow / research lane — live track record shown for transparency; not promoted to the public board yet.

Why some lanes publish nothing: MLB Totals UNDER has produced zero promoted signals since 2026-07-27 — its edge cap filters every candidate out, and we would rather publish silence than noise. A shadow lane earns promotion only through backtest, holdout, and forward-shadow gates (see the August 2026 methodology in the Research Library). Silence is a result, not a gap.

View Full Performance Dashboard →

Performance by Period

The same settled ledger broken down by year, month, week, and day. Every figure is computed from the append-only pick history — no cherry-picking.

2026 · By Model

Period W-L-P Win % ROI Units n
Run Lines 125-76-1 62.2% +17.87% +36.09u 202
Hits Props OVER 228-163-0 58.3% -9.61% -37.59u 391
Hits Props UNDER 663-291-0 69.5% +0.54% +5.13u 954
MLB Totals UNDER 12-3-2 80.0% +46.52% +7.91u 17
F5 Innings 42-39-0 51.9% -1.01% -0.82u 81
NFL Spreads 14-11-1 56.0% +6.52% +1.69u 26
NFL Totals 14-18-4 43.8% -14.65% -5.27u 36
Portfolio (all models) 1098-601-8 64.6% +0.42% +7.13u 1707

2026 · Monthly

Period W-L-P Win % ROI Units n
2026-07 42-25-3 62.7% +16.41% +11.49u 70
2026-08 458-243-0 65.3% +3.70% +25.92u 701
2026-09 583-323-3 64.3% -3.40% -30.94u 909
2026-10 15-10-2 60.0% +2.49% +0.67u 27

2026 · Weekly (recent)

Period W-L-P Win % ROI Units n
2026-W41 0-0-1 0.0% +0.00% +0.00u 1
2026-W40 23-14-3 62.2% -0.66% -0.26u 40
2026-W39 131-83-0 61.2% -8.03% -17.18u 214
2026-W38 178-87-0 67.2% +1.52% +4.03u 265
2026-W37 129-74-1 63.5% -5.02% -10.24u 204
2026-W36 164-81-0 66.9% +0.37% +0.91u 245

Daily Ledger · Last 7 Settled Days

2026-10-05 0-0-1 +0.00u
NFL Totals Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints UNDER 48.0 PENDING +0.00u
2026-10-04 10-6-0 +2.68u
F5 Innings San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers UNDER 4.0 WIN +0.91u
Hits Props OVER San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers Jackson Chourio OVER 0.5 WIN +0.45u
NFL Spreads Arizona Cardinals @ New York Giants HOME 2.5 WIN +0.93u
NFL Spreads Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati Bengals AWAY -2.5 WIN +0.97u
NFL Spreads Miami Dolphins @ Minnesota Vikings AWAY -10.0 WIN +0.91u
NFL Spreads New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills AWAY -7.0 WIN +0.87u
NFL Spreads New York Jets @ Chicago Bears HOME -3.5 WIN +0.91u
NFL Spreads Tennessee Titans @ Baltimore Ravens AWAY -11.5 WIN +0.91u
NFL Totals Denver Broncos @ San Francisco 49ers UNDER 48.0 WIN +0.91u
NFL Totals Detroit Lions @ Carolina Panthers UNDER 51.0 LOSS -1.00u
NFL Totals Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers OVER 39.0 LOSS -1.00u
NFL Totals Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati Bengals UNDER 51.5 WIN +0.91u
NFL Totals Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders UNDER 48.0 LOSS -1.00u
NFL Totals Miami Dolphins @ Minnesota Vikings OVER 38.5 LOSS -1.00u
NFL Totals New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills UNDER 50.0 LOSS -1.00u
NFL Totals New York Jets @ Chicago Bears OVER 43.0 LOSS -1.00u
2026-10-03 5-4-0 -2.00u
Hits Props OVER Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers Drake Baldwin OVER 0.5 WIN +0.42u
Hits Props OVER Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers Andy Pages OVER 0.5 LOSS -1.00u
Hits Props OVER Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers Michael Harris II OVER 0.5 LOSS -1.00u
Hits Props OVER Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians Chase DeLauter OVER 0.5 LOSS -1.00u
Hits Props OVER New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays Chandler Simpson OVER 0.5 LOSS -1.00u
Hits Props UNDER Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers Shohei Ohtani UNDER 1.5 WIN +0.40u
Hits Props UNDER Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers Mookie Betts UNDER 1.5 WIN +0.40u
Hits Props UNDER New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays Junior Caminero UNDER 1.5 WIN +0.37u
Hits Props UNDER New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays Yandy Diaz UNDER 1.5 WIN +0.40u
2026-10-01 0-0-1 +0.00u
NFL Totals Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns UNDER 38.5 PENDING +0.00u
2026-09-30 4-2-0 -0.35u
F5 Innings Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros UNDER 4.0 LOSS -1.00u
Hits Props OVER Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros Jeremy Pena OVER 0.5 WIN +0.43u
Hits Props OVER Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros Yordan Alvarez OVER 0.5 LOSS -1.00u
Hits Props OVER Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves Drake Baldwin OVER 0.5 WIN +0.42u
Hits Props OVER Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves Michael Harris II OVER 0.5 WIN +0.44u
Hits Props UNDER Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves Trea Turner UNDER 1.5 WIN +0.36u
2026-09-29 4-2-0 -0.58u
Hits Props OVER Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros Jeremy Pena OVER 0.5 WIN +0.44u
Hits Props OVER Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros Yordan Alvarez OVER 0.5 WIN +0.36u
Hits Props OVER Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves Michael Harris II OVER 0.5 WIN +0.40u
Hits Props OVER Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves Drake Baldwin OVER 0.5 LOSS -1.00u
Hits Props UNDER Chicago Cubs @ San Diego Padres Fernando Tatis Jr. UNDER 1.5 LOSS -1.00u
Hits Props UNDER Chicago Cubs @ San Diego Padres Dustin Harris UNDER 1.5 WIN +0.21u
2026-09-28 0-0-2 +0.00u
NFL Spreads Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears HOME 3.5 PENDING +0.00u
NFL Totals Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears OVER 42.0 PENDING +0.00u

Methodology & Transparency

  • Every settled pick is recorded in a public, append-only ledger and graded WIN / LOSS / PUSH at 1.0u staked at the real market odds we posted at entry — never flat -110 assumptions.
  • Models are promoted only after passing backtest → holdout → shadow forward validation. Shadow lanes are shown but clearly labelled.
  • Retired lanes (K Props, Run Lines home/all underdogs, Totals OVER, unfiltered Hits Props) are excluded from this page entirely.
  • Player projections are scored like a quant desk, not a tout: bias ≈ 0, level ratio ≈ 1.0, error vs naive baselines, and alpha vs the market line — directional-vs-season vanity metrics are retired. See the August 2026 Projection Audit and why we killed directional accuracy.
  • Validation is walk-forward with a frozen holdout (weights chosen on past data only, scored once on unseen data); errors are block-bootstrapped by game-day. Full protocol in the Research Library.
Read Full Methodology → Download CSV →

Research validation only — not live P&L, not betting advice. Expected monthly volatility ±5%; short-term drawdowns are within normal range.